California’s insurer of last resort just repriced by 29.1 percent, its largest action in seven years, with a quarter of policyholders in high-risk ZIP codes facing 50 to 200 percent increases and carriers now cleared to pass FAIR Plan assessment surcharges through to insureds. When the residual market gets that much more expensive that fast, fire-exposed commercial property has to find another door, and our directory shows exactly where that capacity is forming. One note before the rundown: last week we called the Article 23 sunset the most underreported carrier risk in this universe; Hochul signed the extender on June 26, and that risk has cleared. The full state-by-state read, with the named carriers, is below.

This week, what happened.

  • Florida. Westfield Specialty acquired renewal rights to DOXA’s Arris Property Underwriters program, inheriting an E&S commercial property book and its Florida renewal pipeline immediately, with Q1 GWP up 31 percent to 559M. Citizens’ OIR-approved rates took effect July 1 with commercial property down 5.0 percent even after it sought 11.5 percent on commercial residential, and its market share now sits near a 15-year low of 2 percent. The SB 1028 clearinghouse moved into implementation, with an administrator due by about September 16 and no bidder public as of July 2, while FL cat reinsurance settled down 15 to 25 percent.

  • California. The FAIR Plan won CDI approval for a 29.1 percent average rate increase effective October 15, its biggest in seven years, with high-risk ZIPs facing 50 to 200 percent spikes. A judge signaled carriers may pass FAIR Plan assessment surcharges through to policyholders, with Travelers already charging about 1 percent. Kingstone entered CA E&S homeowners on a ZestyAI wildfire model and Auto Club of Southern California filed to expand in distressed areas under the SIS, while two new wildfire cat bonds marketed CA cover.

  • Texas. July 1 reinsurance landed firmly in buyers’ favor, with Guy Carpenter’s property cat index down about 16 percent and Gallagher Re citing 20 to 25 percent or more on the best-performing North American accounts. Those softer ceded costs flow straight to Texas coastal and severe-convective writers, and the NHC forecast no Gulf development through the window, leaving hail and severe storm as the near-term loss driver. Data center property stayed a strained growth segment, with Zurich reporting Q1 construction GWP up 21 percent on data center demand.

  • New York / New Jersey. Governor Hochul signed the Article 23 extender on June 26, four days before the sunset, keeping NY commercial property on file-and-use rating through 2029. The Chubb and AIG speculation cooled after AIG completed its CEO transition and reaffirmed it is not for sale. Kingstone completed its 2026/2027 cat placement, growing its tower about 14 percent to 500M and adding wildfire cover for the first time, and July 1 reinsurance softening extended to the Northeast at about 16 percent.

  • Illinois. Illinois set a single-year tornado record with 210 preliminary reports through June 25, nearly four times the annual average. State Farm said Illinois customers filed nearly 50,000 severe-weather claims through June 19, with homeowner catastrophe claims running 47 percent above the 10-year average, behind its 27.2 percent homeowners rate action. HB 4273, giving IDOI post-filing rate-review authority over property lines, sat on Governor Pritzker’s desk awaiting his committed signature, and July 1 reinsurance eased as much as 25 percent for Midwest writers.

  • Arizona. The Pocket Fire north of Sedona exploded past 17,000 acres at 20 percent containment by July 1, forcing mandatory evacuations and pushing smoke into Flagstaff’s tourism-dependent commercial corridor, with several other fires burning and Stage 2 restrictions across four counties. Arizona Public Service ran a public safety power shutoff to about 8,000 Flagstaff-area customers on June 27, a business-interruption and inverse-condemnation signal. July 1 reinsurance softening lowered ceded costs on AZ commercial and data center cat programs including wildfire layers, even as a weak, delayed monsoon kept fire danger elevated.

This week, what to do about it.

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