Commercial P&C pricing is shifting as property rates fall, casualty remains firm and insurers continue to report strong earnings. Drawing on Marsh’s market data and recent results from Chubb, Travelers, AIG and other carriers, this article examines how reinsurance capacity, investment income and portfolio choices are reshaping competition, and which signals executives should watch as the cycle moves into 2027.

This week’s deep dive covers:

Commercial insurance pricing is falling, but the downturn remains concentrated in property and selected specialty lines. Global rates declined 6% in Q2 2026, led by a 12% property drop, while casualty still increased 2%. Record reinsurance capital and benign catastrophe losses are driving competition faster than underlying risk is improving, creating margin pressure without a fully synchronized soft market.

Global commercial insurance pricing declined for an eighth consecutive quarter in Q2 2026, accelerating from 5% in Q1 to 6%. Property recorded the sharpest fall at 12%, while financial and professional liability declined 3%, and cyber fell 4%. Casualty pricing continued to rise by 2%.

Property reductions were broad but uneven. Rates fell 19% across India, the Middle East and Africa, 15% in the Pacific, 14% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 13% in the United States. US casualty rates, by contrast, rose 7% as litigation severity and liability loss costs continued to increase.

Competition is most aggressive in